When Beltre goes to
Posted: Sat Feb 16, 2019 3:34 am
An awful lot of digital ink has been spilled on Patrick Roys 2013-14 Colorado Avalanche this summer, a team that more or less defied woeful play at five-on-five by riding unsustainable shooting and save percentages. Largely because we have seen a model of this team before, many analysts are expecting some form of regression a€“ the 2011-12 Minnesota Wild and 2012-13 Toronto Maple Leafs have provided ample case studies in the importance of getting the right side of possession. Perhaps more accurately, they have provided lessons on why teams must not rely on volatile percentages to rack up wins. What makes this Colorado team interesting is two-fold. Firstly, theyre teeming with young and developing talent, which could help stave off that regression to a degree. Secondly, we have only seen one year of real success from this club. The season before, Colorado played to a 67-point pace and finished dead last in the Western Conference. Since we have data on teams dating back to 2007, its not particularly difficult to investigate relationships between sets of data. Correlations of subsequent seasons can tell us what kind of adjustments to make, if any, when trying to forecast future output. What I went ahead and did prior to this post was pull out Year 1 vs. Year 2 data for a variety of team-level even-strength numbers from 2007 to 2012 and dropped them in the table below. Repeatability is an r-squared number that tells us the percent of variance explained - the higher the r-squared number (up to 1.0), the more repeatable of a skill it is: Category Repeatability EV Shooting Percentage 0.00 EV Save Percentage 0.13 EV Goal For% 0.19 EV Fenwick% 0.33 EV Corsi% 0.38 EV Score-Adjusted Fenwick% (SAF%) 0.39 You are reading the above correctly. A teams even-strength shooting percentage over one year tells us absolutely nothing about how that team will shoot the following year. Save percentage is slightly more telling than shooting percentage, but ultimately, its a number youre going to want to heavily regress. As you go down the list, the correlations in data run tighter and the numbers dont need to be regressed as heavily. None of this bodes well for Colorado, a team that rode high percentages and carried terrible territorial control. One other note on the above - youll see that the r-squared between EV GoalFor% in the first year and EV GoalFor% in the subsequent year is 0.19. While EV GoalFor% is a better predictor of future EV GoalFor% than both EV Fenwick% and EV Corsi%, it is not a better predictor than EV Score-Adjusted Fenwick%. That said, lets look at some comparables for the Colorado Avalanche - teams that picked up 90 or more points (my random cut-off line separating average teams from good ones) who also carried sub-par possession numbers at even-strength. Well use equations generated for the year-one to year-two correlations to create an estimated number, and then compare it against the teams actual number. First, lets do the percentages at even-strength: Y1 EVSH% Est. Y2 EVSH% Actual Y2 EVSH% 2007 Pittsburgh 8.96% 7.89% 9.76% 2007 Montreal 8.73% 7.88% 8.23% 2007 Minnesota 8.39% 7.88% 7.50% 2008 Florida 8.35% 7.88% 7.71% 2008 Montreal 8.23% 7.88% 7.58% 2009 Colorado 8.84% 7.89% 7.93% 2010 Carolina 8.05% 7.88% 7.26% 2010 Dallas 8.72% 7.89% 7.62% 2010 Anaheim 7.79% 7.87% 7.99% 2013 Colorado 8.77% 7.89% ? AVERAGE 8.48% 7.88% 7.95% Its almost stunning how identical the expected year two and actual year two percentages are on both ends of the rink. The takeaway from this is simple: one year of shooting percentage data tells us absolutely nothing, and regressing it all the way to the league average will give us a much better forecast of whats to come. Y1 EVSV% Est. Y2 EVSV% Actual Y2EVSV% 2007 Pittsburgh 93.29% 92.55% 92.40% 2007 Montreal 92.53% 92.28% 92.27% 2007 Minnesota 92.25% 92.18% 92.70% 2008 Florida 93.27% 92.54% 93.13% 2008 Montreal 92.27% 92.19% 92.90% 2009 Colorado 92.62% 92.31% 91.35% 2010 Carolina 92.45% 92.25% 92.34% 2010 Dallas 92.49% 92.27% 92.05% 2010 Anaheim 92.32% 92.21% 91.66% 2013 Colorado 93.07% 92.47% ? AVERAGE 92.66% 92.33% 92.31% The same can be said for save percentage data - taking our year one data and pulling it back 87 per cent to the league average gives us a more accurate guess as to whats to come. Using that regression for forecasting purposes, expect Colorado to shoot around 7.89 per cent for next year at evens and stop around 92.47 per cent of the shots. Now, lets break away from shooting and save percentages and look at possession rates. We know Score-Adjusted Fenwick% is the most repeatable of these metrics. Lets repeat the above exercise with the same Colorado comparables, and try to pindown where Colorado will finish at evens this season. Ive included a fourth column in here to identify the change in points from Year 1 to Year 2. Y1 SAF% Est. Y2 SAF% Actual Y2 SAF% Points Change 2007 Pittsburgh 46.70% 48.05% 49.21% -3 2007 Montreal 47.22% 48.36% 47.56% -11 2007 Minnesota 47.77% 48.68% 47.39% -9 2008 Florida 46.18% 47.75% 45.66% -16 2008 Montreal 47.60% 48.58% 46.78% -5 2009 Colorado 46.33% 47.83% 46.38% -27 2010 Carolina 47.18% 48.34% 47.18% -9 2010 Dallas 47.60% 48.58% 47.60% -6 2010 Anaheim 45.46% 47.32% 45.46% -20 2013 Colorado 47.18% 48.34% ? ? AVERAGE 46.92% 48.18% 47.02% -11.78 You should first notice that regression seems less important with our possession numbers than the shooting/save percentages above. Thata€?s because possession is a repeatable skill - or in this case, the lack of possession is a repeatable skill. Every team that can be considered a comparable for Colorado 2013-14 was out-shot in Year 1 and Year 2 - in most cases, decisively. And, ita€?s impossible to ignore that column on the right, where every single percentage-good, possession-bad team of recent history saw a fall in the standings. The average fall for those nine teams was in the double digits, and the one team that didna€?t take a massive hit - 2007 Pittsburgh - improved their possession numbers by almost three full percentage points. Not only are those percentages running against the Avs, but they also go into next season missing their two best possession forwards from last season, with Paul Stastny signing in St. Louis and P.A. Parenteau traded to Montreal. Further, its difficult to project improved possession numbers when the Avalanche brain trust doesnt seem inclined to dig into possession-based analytics. This does not bode well for Patrick Roya€?s team. Ita€?s a virtual lock that their shooting and save percentages will climb down from their heights of last year, which means that their Goal% - last year, it was at 53.6 per cent - is in real trouble. The million dollar question is how far the Avs will fall - knocking them down by the average (-11.78) would likely still see them finish in the post-season, but their margin for error will be extremely tight this year. Vincent Valentine Jersey . The NFL announced Friday that the Texans sixth-year veteran offensive lineman will replace Philadelphia Eagles tackle Jason Peters in the Jan. Andre Tippett Jersey . He, the 25-year-old Toronto backup net-minder and Manitoba native, would be making just his fourth start in the past 16 games against the Jets the following evening. It was the word of opportunity for Reimer, who has fallen into the role of backup, outmatched in recent weeks by Jonathan Bernier, his Quebec counterpart. http://www.patriotsauthenticshop.com/Pa ... ft-Jersey/ . The No. 23 seed at the first Grand Slam event of the tennis season has worked out all the details, from his training regime right down to where hes going to eat dinner. Rob Gronkowski Jersey .J. - Several people have collapsed in an overcrowded New Jersey train station while waiting in long lines to get to the Super Bowl. Matthew Slater Jersey . The matchup will be made up in Minnesota at a later date. The arena was evacuated about 45 minutes before the scheduled 9:30 p.m. EST tipoff when a generator malfunction outside the arena sent smoke pouring into the building, according to NBA spokeswoman Sharon Lima. ARLINGTON, Texas -- Nick Markakis had answers for both of the home runs from Texas slugger Adrian Beltre. The Baltimore leadoff man hit a tying homer after Beltres first blast, and his go-ahead single followed a three-run shot that pulled the Rangers even, as the Orioles went on to a 6-5 victory in Texas on Wednesday night. Markakis single in the sixth inning came after Beltre wiped out a 5-2 lead. Chris Davis had put Baltimore up by three with a solo shot against his former team -- a night after Nelson Cruz did something similar by homering in his first game as an opponent at Texas. "Weve have been having good at bats up there," Markakis said. "Seems like when they get the ball over the plate, weve been getting good swings on it and finding the hole, finding the gap." Cruz had three singles and reached twice on errors by Luis Sardinas, a surprise fill-in at shortstop for Elvis Andrus. It was the second time in less than a week the two-time All-Star wasnt in the starting lineup. Bud Norris (4-5) allowed six hits and five runs in five innings for the Orioles, and the bullpen pitched four scoreless innings. Zach Britton earned his fifth save. Davis, who was traded to the Orioles by Texas in 2011 and led the majors with 53 homers last year, had his eighth this season on a towering shot to right field for a 5-2 lead in the fifth. Cruz, who chose Baltimore over Texas as a free agent in the off-season and leads the big leagues with 21 home runs, hit a three-run homer in a series-opening win Tuesday. Markakis hit his fourth homer against rookie starter Nick Martinez (1-2) in the third. The left-handed hitters go-ahead single came off Aaron Poreda, a lefty brought in to face him. "It doesnt really matter with Nick," manager Buck Showalter said. "There are so few in baseball that left and right doesnt matter." Beltre, who drove in all five Texas runs, gave the Rangers a 2-1 lead with an opposite-field shot off the facing of the upper deck in right field in the first inning and went the other away again in the fifth for his eighth homer of the season.dddddddddddd Beltres tying shot came after Norris was hit on the right forearm on a one-hopper by Mitch Moreland that turned into a single. After a lengthy chat with manager Buck Showalter and the trainer, Norris stayed in and got two quick strikes on Beltre, who fouled off three more pitches before sending a line drive into the Texas bullpen for his third homer in two nights. "When Beltre goes to punching the ball out of the ballpark, he does it in bunches," Rangers manager Ron Washington said. "He put us on his back. We just couldnt put enough runs across the board to help." Norris left the game after the inning with a right forearm contusion. "Im pretty sore," Norris said. "You dont know where you want to get hit, but I guess its the forearm. I got some muscle on it so I guess you could look at it that way." Both of Sardinas errors led to runs. He dropped a popup with two outs in the first, and Cruz scored on a single by Adam Jones. A throwing error in the third came before another run-scoring single by Jones and a sacrifice fly from J.J. Hardy. Andrus grounded out as a pinch-hitter in the sixth and stayed in at shortstop. NOTES: Orioles RHP Miguel Gonzalez was scratched from his Thursday start in Texas and replaced by RHP Chris Tillman. Gonzalez is nursing soreness on his right side, but theres no diagnosis. He was scheduled for an MRI. ... The Rangers observed a moment of silence for Don Zimmer, who died Wednesday. He managed the Rangers in 1981 and part of 1982. ... Orioles closer Tommy Hunter (left groin strain) will pitch in a simulated game Thursday after getting through fielding practice with no issues. 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